Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 53.25%. A win for Connah's Quay Nomads had a probability of 25.69% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.6%) and 3-1 (6.49%). The likeliest Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for The New Saints in this match.