Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 49.38%. A win for Barry Town United had a probability of 27.14% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.78%) and 0-2 (7.69%). The likeliest Barry Town United win was 2-1 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.