Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 50.8%. A win for Barry Town United had a probability of 27.63% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.38%) and 1-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Barry Town United win was 1-2 (6.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.