Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 62.13%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 17.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.49%) and 1-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.32%), while for a Pen-y-Bont win it was 1-2 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.