Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 57.42%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 18.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.24%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Fenix win it was 0-1 (6.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.