Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 44.48%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Millonarios had a probability of 25.98%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.32%) and 2-1 (7.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.1%), while for a Millonarios win it was 0-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.

Result
Penarol	Draw	Millonarios
44.48% ( -0.07)	29.53% ( 0.02)	25.98% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 40.45% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

34.27% (

-0.03)

65.73% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

15.6% (

-0.03)

84.4% (

0.02)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.36% (

-0.06)

29.63% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.32% (

-0.07)

65.68% (

0.07)

Millonarios Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.49% (

0.03)

42.51% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.13% (

0.02)

78.87% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Penarol 44.48%

Millonarios 25.98%

Draw 29.52%

Penarol	Draw	Millonarios
1-0 @ 15.32% 2-0 @ 9.32% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 7.97% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.78% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.23% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.38% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 0.98% ( -0) Other @ 1.35% Total : 44.48%	1-1 @ 13.1% 0-0 @ 12.59% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.41% ( -0) Other @ 0.42% Total : 29.52%	0-1 @ 10.77% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.61% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.61% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.6% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.32% ( 0) 2-3 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.1% Total : 25.98%