Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 5, 2023 at 3am UK
Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín
Defensa y Justicia

Millonarios
3 - 0
Defensa

Castro (59' pen., 69'), Macalister Silva (72')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Millonarios and Defensa y Justicia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Millonarios

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 3-1 Millonarios
Thursday, March 16 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Defensa y Justicia

All competitions
Last Game: Defensa 0-0 Velez Sarsfield
Friday, March 31 at 12am in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millonarios win with a probability of 50.44%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 22.74%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millonarios win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.28%) and 2-1 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (8.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Millonarios would win this match.

Result
MillonariosDrawDefensa y Justicia
50.44% (0.203 0.2)26.83% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)22.74% (-0.198 -0.2)
Both teams to score 44.4% (-0.197 -0.2)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.73% (-0.145 -0.15)59.27% (0.146 0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.32% (-0.113 -0.11)79.68% (0.113 0.11)
Millonarios Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.34% (0.028999999999996 0.03)23.66% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.24% (0.042000000000002 0.04)57.76% (-0.041000000000004 -0.04)
Defensa y Justicia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.16% (-0.28 -0.28)41.85% (0.281 0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.7% (-0.243 -0.24)78.3% (0.244 0.24)
Score Analysis
    Millonarios 50.43%
    Defensa y Justicia 22.74%
    Draw 26.82%
MillonariosDrawDefensa y Justicia
1-0 @ 14.27% (0.09 0.09)
2-0 @ 10.28% (0.069999999999999 0.07)
2-1 @ 8.96% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
3-0 @ 4.94% (0.04 0.04)
3-1 @ 4.31% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-2 @ 1.88% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.78% (0.016 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.55% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.47%
Total : 50.43%
1-1 @ 12.43% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 9.9% (0.055 0.05)
2-2 @ 3.9% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 0.59%
Total : 26.82%
0-1 @ 8.62% (-0.019 -0.02)
1-2 @ 5.42% (-0.049 -0.05)
0-2 @ 3.76% (-0.037 -0.04)
1-3 @ 1.57% (-0.026 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.13% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.09% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 1.15%
Total : 22.74%