Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.62%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 25.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.25%) and 1-2 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.58%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 1-0 (8.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.