Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 38.7%. A win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 30.94% and a draw had a probability of 30.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.79%) and 1-2 (7.37%). The likeliest Montevideo City Torque win was 1-0 (12.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.