Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 38.99%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 30.6% and a draw had a probability of 30.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.88%) and 1-2 (7.38%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (12.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.