Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 44.96%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Rentistas had a probability of 26.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9%) and 2-1 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.99%), while for a Rentistas win it was 0-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.