Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 42.84%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 33.13% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.89%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.

Result
Basel	Draw	Lugano
42.84% ( -0)	24.03% ( 0.01)	33.13% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 60.48% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.21% (

-0.07)

41.8% (

0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.8% (

-0.07)

64.2% (

0.07)

Basel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.26% (

-0.03)

19.74% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.24% (

-0.05)

51.76% (

0.05)

Lugano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.36% (

-0.04)

24.64% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.84% (

-0.06)

59.16% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Basel 42.84%

Lugano 33.13%

Draw 24.03%

Basel	Draw	Lugano
2-1 @ 8.97% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.89% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.4% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.85% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.46% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.97% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.41% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.38% ( -0) Other @ 3.11% Total : 42.84%	1-1 @ 11.05% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.03%	1-2 @ 7.74% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.81% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.77% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.62% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.23% 1-4 @ 1.27% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.03% ( -0) Other @ 2.73% Total : 33.13%