Lugano

1 - 3

Basel

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 40.3%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 35.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.88%) and 0-2 (6.08%). The likeliest Lugano win was 2-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.