Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Servette win with a probability of 51.78%. A win for Basel had a probability of 25.83% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Servette win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.91%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Basel win was 1-2 (6.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Servette would win this match.