Champions League

Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Jul 23, 2024 at 7.30pm UK

Stadio di Cornaredo

Lugano
3 - 4
Fenerbahce

El Wafi (4'), Bislimi (64'), Valenzuela (90+4')
El Wafi (29'), Papadopoulos (59'), Bottani (69'), Grgic (71'), Zanotti (77')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Dzeko (45+1' pen., 46', 67'), Kadioglu (74')
Soyuncu (18'), Tadic (45+3'), Oosterwolde (70'), Tosun (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Lugano and Fenerbahce, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lugano

All competitions

Last Game: Lugano 2-1 Grasshopper
Saturday, July 20 at 5pm in Swiss Super League

Goals
for

Fenerbahce

All competitions

Last Game: Fenerbahce 5-1 Hull City
Thursday, July 18 at 6.30pm in Club Friendlies 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 58.16%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Lugano had a probability of 20.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.46%) and 0-1 (8.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.52%), while for a Lugano win it was 2-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.

Result
Lugano	Draw	Fenerbahce
20.86% ( -5.13)	20.98% ( -2.93)	58.16% ( 8.07)

Both teams to score 59.99% (

3.71)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.56% (

7.84)

37.44% (

-7.84)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.34% (

7.96)

59.66% (

-7.96)

Lugano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.7% (

-0.05)

31.3% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.35% (

-0.06)

67.65% (

0.06)

Fenerbahce Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.32% (

5.46)

12.69% (

-5.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.12% (

10.23)

38.88% (

-10.23)

Score Analysis

Lugano 20.86%

Fenerbahce 58.16%

Draw 20.98%

Lugano	Draw	Fenerbahce
2-1 @ 5.53% ( -1.02) 1-0 @ 4.61% ( -1.98) 2-0 @ 2.68% ( -1.16) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 2.14% ( -0.4) 3-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.45) Other @ 2.65% Total : 20.86%	1-1 @ 9.52% ( -1.73) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 3.97% ( -1.7) 3-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.29) Other @ 0.25% Total : 20.98%	1-2 @ 9.83% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 8.46% ( 0.21) 0-1 @ 8.2% ( -1.48) 1-3 @ 6.77% ( 1.3) 0-3 @ 5.82% ( 1.13) 2-3 @ 3.93% ( 0.75) 1-4 @ 3.49% ( 1.16) 0-4 @ 3.01% ( 1) 2-4 @ 2.03% ( 0.67) 1-5 @ 1.44% ( 0.65) 0-5 @ 1.24% ( 0.56) Other @ 3.94% Total : 58.16%