Spezia's fight for survival may go down to the final 90 minutes of a testing campaign - depending on the results of their fellow strugglers - as they are likely to return from Friuli empty-handed, given an away record which features just four wins from 18 previous attempts.
Also conceding at a rate of over two goals per game on the road, the Aquilotti are set to be denied even a precious point by their hosts, who have improved offensively of late and tend to make the most of home advantage.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Udinese win with a probability of 61.62%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 18.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Udinese win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.38%) and 1-0 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.37%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-2 (4.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
0.09) 
-0.02) 
