| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Bologna | 38 | -11 | 46 |
| 14 | Empoli | 38 | -20 | 41 |
| 15 | Sampdoria | 38 | -17 | 36 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 15 | Sampdoria | 38 | -17 | 36 |
| 16 | Spezia | 38 | -30 | 36 |
| 17 | Salernitana | 38 | -45 | 31 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Empoli win with a probability of 52.39%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 25.23% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Empoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.09%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-2 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Empoli | Draw | Spezia |
| 52.39% | 22.38% | 25.23% |
| Both teams to score 60.82% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.06% | 38.94% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.74% | 61.26% |
| Empoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.02% | 14.98% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.58% | 43.42% |
| Spezia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.54% | 28.46% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.78% | 64.22% |
| Score Analysis |
| Empoli | Draw | Spezia |
| 2-1 @ 9.66% 1-0 @ 8.09% 2-0 @ 7.68% 3-1 @ 6.11% 3-0 @ 4.86% 3-2 @ 3.84% 4-1 @ 2.9% 4-0 @ 2.31% 4-2 @ 1.82% 5-1 @ 1.1% Other @ 4.02% Total : 52.39% | 1-1 @ 10.17% 2-2 @ 6.07% 0-0 @ 4.26% 3-3 @ 1.61% Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.37% | 1-2 @ 6.39% 0-1 @ 5.36% 0-2 @ 3.37% 1-3 @ 2.68% 2-3 @ 2.54% 0-3 @ 1.41% Other @ 3.48% Total : 25.23% |