Spezia showed their defensive resilience against Cagliari last time out, but they could struggle to keep a clean sheet against Sassuolo, who have scored at least twice in 18 Serie A games this season, including in each of their last five.
The hosts will miss the presence of Raspadori in attack, but they still have enough quality in their side to secure all three points on Friday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 61.38%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 18.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.32%) and 1-0 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.39%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-2 (4.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sassuolo would win this match.
