Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 41.44%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 34.93% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.15%) and 2-0 (5.87%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 1-2 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sassuolo in this match.