Perhaps surprisingly, given their propensity to run hot and cold, Fiorentina have conceded the fewest shots in Serie A so far this season; while no team has conceded more attempts at goal than Spezia's 402.
Given the opportunity to strike, the Viola have sufficient attacking intent to score at least once, but may also be caught out at the back by a home side showing a much more coherent approach since the turn of the year.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 45.2%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.21%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
