Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 44.2%. A win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 31.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Hellas Verona win was 1-2 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.