We said: Bologna 1-0 Spezia
It may be a tense watch at Dall'Ara, but Bologna can grind out a narrow margin of victory against a Spezia side whose brief spell of superb form seems to be dissipating.
The hosts score at a rate barely above a goal per game on home soil, but if they can keep a rare clean sheet, then the three points should be all theirs.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 54.21%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 22.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.08%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (6.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.
