Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 76.88%. A draw had a probability of 14.8% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 8.33%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.52%) and 1-0 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.01%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (2.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.