Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 48.25%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 29.67% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.42%) and 0-2 (6.18%). The likeliest Empoli win was 2-1 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.