Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 46.05%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 26.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.11%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.83%), while for a Venezia win it was 0-1 (9.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Spezia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Spezia.