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Premier League | Gameweek 38
May 19, 2024 at 4pm UK
Brentford Community Stadium
Newcastle logo

Brentford
2 - 4
Newcastle

Janelt (48'), Wissa (70')
Toney (44'), Jensen (45+5'), Wissa (51'), Maupay (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Barnes (21'), Murphy (36'), Isak (38'), Guimaraes (77')
Joelinton (28'), Burn (53'), Krafth (66'), Pope (90+5')

The Match

Match Report

Newcastle United secure seventh spot in the Premier League table courtesy of a 4-2 win over Brentford on the final matchday of the 2023-24 campaign.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Premier League clash between Brentford and Newcastle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Bournemouth 1-2 Brentford
Saturday, May 11 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man Utd 3-2 Newcastle
Wednesday, May 15 at 8pm in Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 38.9%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 37.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.87%) and 0-2 (5.45%). The likeliest Brentford win was 2-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.

Result
BrentfordDrawNewcastle United
37.42% (-1.155 -1.16) 23.67% (0.153 0.15) 38.9% (1.004 1)
Both teams to score 62.72% (-0.606 -0.61)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.76% (-0.776 -0.78)39.24% (0.778 0.78)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.43% (-0.818 -0.82)61.57% (0.82 0.82)
Brentford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.84% (-0.89800000000001 -0.9)21.16% (0.9 0.9)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.98% (-1.415 -1.42)54.01% (1.417 1.42)
Newcastle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.56% (0.139 0.14)20.44% (-0.137 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.1% (0.221 0.22)52.89% (-0.219 -0.22)
Score Analysis
    Brentford 37.42%
    Newcastle United 38.9%
    Draw 23.67%
BrentfordDrawNewcastle United
2-1 @ 8.28% (-0.118 -0.12)
1-0 @ 6.72% (0.061 0.06)
2-0 @ 5.22% (-0.097 -0.1)
3-1 @ 4.29% (-0.183 -0.18)
3-2 @ 3.4% (-0.13 -0.13)
3-0 @ 2.7% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-1 @ 1.67% (-0.12 -0.12)
4-2 @ 1.32% (-0.089 -0.09)
4-0 @ 1.05% (-0.08 -0.08)
Other @ 2.78%
Total : 37.42%
1-1 @ 10.66% (0.14 0.14)
2-2 @ 6.58% (-0.065 -0.06)
0-0 @ 4.32% (0.156 0.16)
3-3 @ 1.8% (-0.061 -0.06)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 23.67%
1-2 @ 8.47% (0.148 0.15)
0-1 @ 6.87% (0.275 0.28)
0-2 @ 5.45% (0.241 0.24)
1-3 @ 4.48% (0.097 0.1)
2-3 @ 3.48% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.88% (0.139 0.14)
1-4 @ 1.78% (0.046 0.05)
2-4 @ 1.38% (-0.002 -0)
0-4 @ 1.15% (0.06 0.06)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 38.9%

How you voted: Brentford vs Newcastle

Brentford
21.2%
Draw
19.7%
Newcastle United
59.1%
203
Head to Head
Sep 16, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 5
Newcastle
1-0
Brentford
Wilson (64' pen.)
Gordon (90+5'), Guimaraes (90+7'), Wilson (90+5')

Wissa (33'), Norgaard (42'), Hickey (59'), Flekken (64'), Collins (85')
Apr 8, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 30
Brentford
1-2
Newcastle
Toney (45+1' pen.)
Raya (54' og.), Isak (61')
Oct 8, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 10
Newcastle
5-1
Brentford
Guimaraes (21', 56'), Murphy (28'), Almiron (82'), Pinnock (90' og.)
Toney (54' pen.)
Feb 26, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 27
Brentford
0-2
Newcastle

Ajer (45+1'), Mbeumo (84'), Janelt (90+5')
Dasilva (11')
Joelinton (33'), Willock (44')
Dubravka (68')
Nov 20, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 12
Newcastle
3-3
Brentford
Lascelles (10'), Joelinton (39'), Saint-Maximin (75')
Wilson (46'), Saint-Maximin (75')
Toney (11'), Henry (31'), Lascelles (61' og.)
Ghoddos (42'), Norgaard (83')
rhs 2.0
Euro 2024 fixtures header
Tuesday, June 25
 
5pm
 
8pm
 
8pm
Wednesday, June 26
 
5pm
 
5pm
 
8pm
Saturday, June 29
 
5pm
 
8pm
Sunday, June 30
Monday, July 1
Tuesday, July 2
Friday, July 5
Saturday, July 6
Tuesday, July 9
Wednesday, July 10
Sunday, July 14
Tables header RHS

Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany32107
Q Switzerland Switzerland31205
3 Hungary Hungary31023
4 Scotland flag Scotland30121

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain33009
Q Italy Italy31114
3 Croatia Croatia30212
4 Albania national flag Albania30121

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q England flag England21104
2 Denmark Denmark20202
3 Slovenia Slovenia20202
4 Serbia Serbia20111

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Netherlands Netherlands21104
Q France France21104
3 Austria Austria21013
4 Poland Poland20020

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Romania Romania21013
2 Belgium Belgium21013
3 Slovakia Slovakia21013
4 Ukraine Ukraine21013

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Portugal Portugal22006
2 Turkey Turkey21013
3 Czech Republic Czech Republic20111
4 Georgia Georgia20111


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