Newcastle5 - 1Brentford
The Match
Preview
Form, Standings, Stats
Saturday, October 1 at 3pm in Premier League
Saturday, October 1 at 3pm in Premier League
We said: Newcastle United 2-1 Brentford
The last five meetings between these two sides at St James' Park have seen a total of 24 goals scored at an average of 4.8 per match, and there could be plenty more goalmouth action in the North East this weekend. Both Newcastle and Brentford will fancy their chances of success, but we can see the hosts following up last weekend's victory with another three points on Saturday in front of their own fans. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 46.52%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 27.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Brentford win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Brentford |
46.52% ( 0.61) | 25.59% ( -0.13) | 27.88% ( -0.48) |
| Both teams to score 52.42% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.9% ( 0.24) | 51.09% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.05% ( 0.21) | 72.95% ( -0.22) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.04% ( 0.37) | 21.95% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.75% ( 0.57) | 55.24% ( -0.58) |
| Brentford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.16% ( -0.25) | 32.83% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.6% ( -0.27) | 69.4% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | Brentford |
| 1-0 @ 10.92% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.23% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 8.29% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 4.66% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 4.19% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.6% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.59% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.29% Total : 46.51% | 1-1 @ 12.17% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0)3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.59% | 0-1 @ 8.03% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 6.78% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.52% Total : 27.88% |
