Polish Ekstraklasa | Gameweek 4
Sep 25, 2024 at 6pm UK
Arena Lublin

Motor Lublin
0 - 2
Jagiellonia


Caliskaner (20')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Romanczuk (4'), Normann Hansen (50')
Romanczuk (45+1'), Sacek (66'), Dieguez (86')
Coverage of the Polish Ekstraklasa clash between Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia Bialystok.

Form, Standings, Stats

Motor Lublin

All competitions
Last Game: Stal Mielec 1-0 Motor Lublin
Sunday, September 22 at 11.15am in Polish Ekstraklasa

Jagiellonia Bialystok

All competitions
Polish Ekstraklasa
Last Game: Jagiellonia 3-2 Gdansk
Saturday, September 21 at 1.45pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Motor Lublin win with a probability of 49.1%. A win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 26.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Motor Lublin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 0-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.

Result
Motor LublinDrawJagiellonia Bialystok
49.1% (-0.012 -0.01)24.7% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)26.19% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 53.88% (0.044999999999995 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.46% (0.050999999999995 0.05)48.54% (-0.049000000000007 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.33% (0.044999999999998 0.04)70.67% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Motor Lublin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.2% (0.016000000000005 0.02)19.8% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.13% (0.024999999999999 0.02)51.87% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)
Jagiellonia Bialystok Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.18% (0.042000000000002 0.04)32.82% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.62% (0.048000000000002 0.05)69.38% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Motor Lublin 49.1%
    Jagiellonia Bialystok 26.19%
    Draw 24.7%
Motor LublinDrawJagiellonia Bialystok
1-0 @ 10.52% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.49% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 8.52% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5.12% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 4.6% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-2 @ 2.86% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-1 @ 2.08% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-0 @ 1.86%
4-2 @ 1.16% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.89%
Total : 49.1%
1-1 @ 11.72% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 6.5% (-0.013 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.29% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.06% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 24.7%
0-1 @ 7.24% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-2 @ 6.53% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.03% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-3 @ 2.43% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 1.97% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.5% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 26.19%

How you voted: Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia

Motor Lublin
40.0%
Draw
20.0%
Jagiellonia Bialystok
40.0%
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