Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 57.25%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 20.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.54%) and 2-0 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win it was 1-2 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lech Poznan would win this match.