Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 58.38%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 19.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.57%) and 2-0 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.12%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 1-2 (5.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
Result | ||
Philadelphia Union | Draw | Chicago Fire |
58.38% ( -0.63) | 21.65% ( 0.23) | 19.97% ( 0.4) |
Both teams to score 56.12% ( -0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.15% ( -0.47) | 41.85% ( 0.48) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.75% ( -0.48) | 64.25% ( 0.48) |
Philadelphia Union Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.95% ( -0.35) | 14.05% ( 0.35) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.38% ( -0.69) | 41.62% ( 0.69) |
Chicago Fire Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.3% ( 0.13) | 34.7% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.57% ( 0.14) | 71.43% ( -0.13) |
Score Analysis |
Philadelphia Union | Draw | Chicago Fire |
2-1 @ 9.94% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.57% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 9.39% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 6.5% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 6.14% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 3.44% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.19% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 3.01% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.08% Total : 58.38% | 1-1 @ 10.12% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.26% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.88% ( 0.1) 3-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.17% Total : 21.64% | 1-2 @ 5.36% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 5.16% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 2.73% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.01% Total : 19.97% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 21 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 18 |
3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 17 |
4 | Toronto | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 16 |
5 | Columbus Crew | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 15 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 14 |
7 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 13 |
8 | DC United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 13 |
9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 12 |
10 | CF MontrealMontreal | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
11 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 11 |
12 | Chicago Fire | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 10 |
13 | Orlando City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 9 |
14 | Nashville SCNashville | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 8 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 18 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 18 |
3 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 17 |
4 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 17 |
5 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 15 |
6 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 15 |
7 | Austin FCAustin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 15 |
8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 13 |
9 | St Louis City | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 12 |
10 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 11 |
11 | Portland TimbersPortland | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 10 |
12 | Dallas | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
13 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 4 |