Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 57.38%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Columbus Crew had a probability of 20.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.69%) and 2-0 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.31%), while for a Columbus Crew win it was 1-2 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.