Major League Soccer

May 17, 2025 at 9.30pm UK

Citi Field

NY City
2 - 0
NY Red Bulls

Martinez (13'), Moralez (50')
Fernandez (30')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Eile (42'), Nealis (54'), Duncan (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between New York City FC and New York Red Bulls, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

New York City FC

All competitions

Major League Soccer

Last Game: DC United 0-0 NY City
Thursday, May 15 at 12.30am in MLS Playoffs

Goals
for

New York Red Bulls

All competitions

Major League Soccer

Last Game: Nashville 2-1 NY Red Bulls
Thursday, May 15 at 1.30am in MLS Playoffs

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 48.93%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 27.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for New York City FC in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for New York City FC.

Result
New York City FC	Draw	New York Red Bulls
48.93% ( -0.54)	23.5% ( 0.22)	27.57% ( 0.31)

Both teams to score 59.09% (

-0.5)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.8% (

-0.78)

42.2% (

0.78)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.39% (

-0.79)

64.6% (

0.79)

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.58% (

-0.5)

17.41% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.15% (

-0.88)

47.85% (

0.87)

New York Red Bulls Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.55% (

-0.18)

28.44% (

0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.79% (

-0.23)

64.2% (

0.22)

Score Analysis

New York City FC 48.93%

New York Red Bulls 27.57%

Draw 23.49%

New York City FC	Draw	New York Red Bulls
2-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.66% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 7.57% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.54% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 4.41% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 3.48% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 2.42% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 1.93% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.52% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.89% Total : 48.93%	1-1 @ 10.88% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 5.98% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.95% ( 0.17) 3-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.49%	1-2 @ 6.84% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 6.23% ( 0.19) 0-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 2.87% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 0.9% ( -0) Other @ 2.67% Total : 27.57%