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New York City
Major League Soccer
May 19, 2024 at 12.30am UK
Citi Field
New York Red Bulls

NY City
2 - 1
NY Red Bulls

Wolf (3'), Bakrar (64')
Sands (32')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Harper (45+1')
Harper (25'), Amaya (66'), Nealis (67'), Tolkin (90'), Schwarz (90+2')
Nealis (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between New York City FC and New York Red Bulls, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Philadelphia 1-2 NY City
Thursday, May 16 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: DC United 1-4 NY Red Bulls
Thursday, May 16 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: New York City FC 1-0 New York Red Bulls

The Red Bulls have shown themselves to be a quality attacking side, but we believe it will be much harder to penetrate the Pigeons' backline, which have conceded a goal or fewer in four of their last five home fixtures. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 57.79%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 20.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.

Result
New York City FCDrawNew York Red Bulls
57.79% (-2.03 -2.03) 22.19% (0.285 0.29) 20.02% (1.745 1.75)
Both teams to score 54.37% (2.134 2.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.79% (1.33 1.33)44.21% (-1.332 -1.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.41% (1.282 1.28)66.58% (-1.282 -1.28)
New York City FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.97% (-0.209 -0.21)15.02% (0.208 0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.5% (-0.395 -0.4)43.5% (0.394 0.39)
New York Red Bulls Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.99% (2.659 2.66)36.01% (-2.662 -2.66)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.21% (2.621 2.62)72.79% (-2.622 -2.62)
Score Analysis
    New York City FC 57.79%
    New York Red Bulls 20.02%
    Draw 22.18%
New York City FCDrawNew York Red Bulls
1-0 @ 10.25% (-0.69 -0.69)
2-1 @ 9.93% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 9.72% (-0.721 -0.72)
3-1 @ 6.27% (-0.044 -0.04)
3-0 @ 6.14% (-0.507 -0.51)
3-2 @ 3.2% (0.202 0.2)
4-1 @ 2.97% (-0.043 -0.04)
4-0 @ 2.91% (-0.264 -0.26)
4-2 @ 1.52% (0.086 0.09)
5-1 @ 1.13% (-0.025 -0.02)
5-0 @ 1.1% (-0.109 -0.11)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 57.79%
1-1 @ 10.47% (0.08 0.08)
0-0 @ 5.41% (-0.319 -0.32)
2-2 @ 5.07% (0.356 0.36)
3-3 @ 1.09% (0.141 0.14)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 22.18%
0-1 @ 5.53% (0.083 0.08)
1-2 @ 5.35% (0.411 0.41)
0-2 @ 2.82% (0.236 0.24)
1-3 @ 1.82% (0.257 0.26)
2-3 @ 1.73% (0.233 0.23)
0-3 @ 0.96% (0.142 0.14)
Other @ 1.81%
Total : 20.02%

How you voted: NY City vs NY Red Bulls

New York City FC
81.8%
Draw
9.1%
New York Red Bulls
9.1%
11
Head to Head
Sep 16, 2023 8.30pm
NY City
0-0
NY Red Bulls
Pellegrini (42'), Morales (63'), Sands (90+3')
Barlow (48'), Ndam (69'), Harper (90+7'), Tolkin (90+7')
May 14, 2023 12.30am
Jul 17, 2022 10pm
Oct 17, 2021 6pm
Gameweek 40
NY Red Bulls
1-0
NY City
Casseres Jr (3')
Nealis (16'), Davis (21')

Chanot (34'), Amundsen (82')
rhs 2.0
Euro 2024 fixtures header
Tuesday, June 25
 
5pm
 
8pm
 
8pm
Wednesday, June 26
 
5pm
 
5pm
 
8pm
Saturday, June 29
 
5pm
 
8pm
Sunday, June 30
Monday, July 1
Tuesday, July 2
Friday, July 5
Saturday, July 6
Tuesday, July 9
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Sunday, July 14
Tables header RHS

Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany32107
Q Switzerland Switzerland31205
3 Hungary Hungary31023
4 Scotland flag Scotland30121

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain33009
Q Italy Italy31114
3 Croatia Croatia30212
4 Albania national flag Albania30121

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q England flag England21104
2 Denmark Denmark20202
3 Slovenia Slovenia20202
4 Serbia Serbia20111

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Netherlands Netherlands21104
Q France France21104
3 Austria Austria21013
4 Poland Poland20020

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Romania Romania21013
2 Belgium Belgium21013
3 Slovakia Slovakia21013
4 Ukraine Ukraine21013

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Portugal Portugal22006
2 Turkey Turkey21013
3 Czech Republic Czech Republic20111
4 Georgia Georgia20111


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