Major League Soccer

May 19, 2024 at 12.30am UK

Citi Field

NY City
2 - 1
NY Red Bulls

Wolf (3', 3'), Bakrar (64', 64')
Sands (32'), Sands (32')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Harper (45+1', 45+1')
Harper (25'), Harper (25'), Amaya (66'), Amaya (66'), Nealis (67'), Nealis (67'), Tolkin (90'), Schwarz (90+2'), Tolkin (90'), Schwarz (90+2')
Nealis (90+3'), Nealis (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between New York City FC and New York Red Bulls, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

New York City FC

All competitions

Last Game: Philadelphia 1-2 NY City
Thursday, May 16 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

New York Red Bulls

All competitions

Last Game: DC United 1-4 NY Red Bulls
Thursday, May 16 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 57.79%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 20.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.

Result
New York City FC	Draw	New York Red Bulls
57.79% ( -2.03)	22.19% ( 0.29)	20.02% ( 1.75)

Both teams to score 54.37% (

2.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.79% (

1.33)

44.21% (

-1.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.41% (

1.28)

66.58% (

-1.28)

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.97% (

-0.21)

15.02% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.5% (

-0.4)

43.5% (

0.39)

New York Red Bulls Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.99% (

2.66)

36.01% (

-2.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.21% (

2.62)

72.79% (

-2.62)

Score Analysis

New York City FC 57.79%

New York Red Bulls 20.02%

Draw 22.18%

New York City FC	Draw	New York Red Bulls
1-0 @ 10.25% ( -0.69) 2-1 @ 9.93% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.72% ( -0.72) 3-1 @ 6.27% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 6.14% ( -0.51) 3-2 @ 3.2% ( 0.2) 4-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2.91% ( -0.26) 4-2 @ 1.52% ( 0.09) 5-1 @ 1.13% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.64% Total : 57.79%	1-1 @ 10.47% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 5.41% ( -0.32) 2-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.36) 3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.14) Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.18%	0-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 5.35% ( 0.41) 0-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.24) 1-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.26) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.23) 0-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.14) Other @ 1.81% Total : 20.02%