Major League Soccer

May 12, 2024 at 12.30am UK

BMO Field

Toronto
2 - 3
NY City

Bernardeschi (55', 55'), Petretta (89', 89')
Bernardeschi (22'), Bernardeschi (22'), Rosted (36'), Rosted (36'), Long (53'), Long (53')

FT(HT: 0-4)

Rodriguez (23' pen., 23' pen.), Jones (44', 44'), Perea (78', 78')
Martinez (29'), Martinez (29'), Jones (50'), Jones (50'), Perea (90+9'), Perea (90+9')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and New York City FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toronto

All competitions

Last Game: Toronto 3-1 Dallas
Sunday, May 5 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

New York City FC

All competitions

Last Game: NY City 0-2 Colorado
Sunday, May 5 at 9pm in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 44.81%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 29.14% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.

Result
Toronto	Draw	New York City FC
44.81% ( 0.04)	26.05% ( 0.01)	29.14% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 51.81% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.72% (

-0.04)

52.27% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.03% (

-0.04)

73.97% (

0.03)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.75% (

23.25% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.83% (

57.16% (

-0)

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.5% (

-0.05)

32.5% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.97% (

-0.06)

69.03% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Toronto 44.81%

New York City FC 29.14%

Draw 26.04%

Toronto	Draw	New York City FC
1-0 @ 11.02% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.04% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.4% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.91% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.47% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.6% 4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.9% ( -0) Other @ 2% Total : 44.81%	1-1 @ 12.38% 0-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.04%	0-1 @ 8.49% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.96% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.77% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.9% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.79% ( -0) Other @ 2.62% Total : 29.14%