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New York Red Bulls
Major League Soccer
Jul 17, 2022 at 10pm UK
Red Bull Arena
New York City

NY Red Bulls
0 - 1
NY City


Casseres Jr (84'), Amaya (86'), Nealis (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Castellanos (69')
Morales (41'), Acevedo (71'), Castellanos (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between New York Red Bulls and New York City FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: New York Red Bulls 2-1 New York City FC

These are two evenly matched teams on paper, having both allowed the same amount of goals, though Red Bull Arena is the deciding factor in this one, as the home side have settled into quite the groove there, and when that home crowd is on you, it can be highly challenging to compete against them and that high press. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 30.82% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.

Result
New York Red BullsDrawNew York City FC
42.3% (0.561 0.56) 26.88% (0.127 0.13) 30.82% (-0.686 -0.69)
Both teams to score 50.1% (-0.659 -0.66)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.13% (-0.714 -0.71)54.87% (0.715 0.71)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.84% (-0.593 -0.59)76.16% (0.59400000000001 0.59)
New York Red Bulls Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.35% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)25.65% (0.035 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.46% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)60.54% (0.047000000000004 0.05)
New York City FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.38% (-0.85299999999999 -0.85)32.62% (0.854 0.85)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.84% (-0.967 -0.97)69.16% (0.968 0.97)
Score Analysis
    New York Red Bulls 42.29%
    New York City FC 30.82%
    Draw 26.88%
New York Red BullsDrawNew York City FC
1-0 @ 11.38% (0.3 0.3)
2-1 @ 8.68% (0.020999999999999 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.75% (0.198 0.2)
3-1 @ 3.94% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.51% (0.087 0.09)
3-2 @ 2.21% (-0.048 -0.05)
4-1 @ 1.34% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 1.2% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 42.29%
1-1 @ 12.75% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 8.37% (0.229 0.23)
2-2 @ 4.86% (-0.103 -0.1)
Other @ 0.91%
Total : 26.88%
0-1 @ 9.37% (0.042 0.04)
1-2 @ 7.14% (-0.144 -0.14)
0-2 @ 5.25% (-0.1 -0.1)
1-3 @ 2.67% (-0.118 -0.12)
0-3 @ 1.96% (-0.085 -0.09)
2-3 @ 1.82% (-0.082 -0.08)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 30.82%

How you voted: NY Red Bulls vs NY City

New York Red Bulls
54.3%
Draw
28.6%
New York City FC
17.1%
35
Head to Head
Oct 17, 2021 6pm
NY Red Bulls
1-0
NY City
Casseres Jr (3')
Nealis (16'), Davis (21')

Chanot (34'), Amundsen (82')
Sep 26, 2021 1am
Sep 23, 2021 1am
NY Red Bulls
1-1
NY City
Klimala (90+12' pen., 90+12' pen.)
Davis (45'), Reyes (61'), Klimala (80'), Duncan (82'), Clark (84')
Castellanos (31')
Callens (21'), Tinnerholm (44'), Chanot (84')
Parks (73'), Chanot (90+10')
Nov 2, 2020 12am
NY City
5-2
NY Red Bulls
Castellanos (12', 76', 84' pen.), Mackay-Steven (42'), Ring (51')
Parks (68'), Medina (70')
White (18'), Casseres Jr (38')
Duncan (41')
rhs 2.0
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