Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 52.91%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 24.84% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.08%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 (6.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.