Major League Soccer

Oct 6, 2024 at 12.30am UK

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Atlanta
2 - 1
NY Red Bulls

Miranchuk (75' pen., 75' pen.), Wolff (90+7', 90+7')
Coronel (70'), Rode Gregersen (70'), Valentino (71'), Valentino (71')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Ngoma (90+14', 90+14')
Tolkin (32'), Schwarz (32'), Tolkin (32'), Schwarz (32'), Forsberg (69'), Forsberg (69'), Rode Gregersen (70'), Nealis (70'), Coronel (70'), Nealis (70'), Eile (90'), Eile (90')
Nealis (66'), Nealis (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Atlanta United and New York Red Bulls, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atlanta United

All competitions

Last Game: Atlanta 1-2 Montreal
Thursday, October 3 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

New York Red Bulls

All competitions

Last Game: Toronto 1-4 NY Red Bulls
Thursday, October 3 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 46.71%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 30.17% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.49%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Atlanta United in this match.

Result
Atlanta United	Draw	New York Red Bulls
46.71% ( 0.58)	23.11% ( -0.24)	30.17% ( -0.33)

Both teams to score 62.38% (

0.7)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.3% (

38.7% (

-1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39% (

1.04)

61% (

-1.05)

Atlanta United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.08% (

0.61)

16.92% (

-0.61)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.02% (

1.07)

46.97% (

-1.07)

New York Red Bulls Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.08% (

0.29)

24.92% (

-0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.45% (

0.4)

59.54% (

-0.4)

Score Analysis

Atlanta United 46.71%

New York Red Bulls 30.17%

Draw 23.1%

Atlanta United	Draw	New York Red Bulls
2-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 7.49% ( -0.2) 2-0 @ 6.66% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 3.94% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 3.81% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 2.43% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 1.75% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.69% ( 0.08) Other @ 4.22% Total : 46.71%	1-1 @ 10.4% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 6.43% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.2) 3-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.1%	1-2 @ 7.23% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 5.86% ( -0.23) 0-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 3.35% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.98% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.03% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.61% Total : 30.17%