Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 40.12%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 35.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.78%) and 2-0 (6.02%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.