New York City
MLS Playoffs | MLS Cup Round One
Nov 2, 2024 at 9pm UK
Citi Field
FC Cincinnati

NY City
3 - 1
Cincinnati

Martinez (22'), Martins (40'), Rodriguez (90+7' pen.)
Rodriguez (53'), Sands (72')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Orellano (65')
Bucha (43'), Yedlin (56'), Kubo (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between New York City FC and FC Cincinnati, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

New York City FC

All competitions
Last Game: Cincinnati 1-0 NY City
Monday, October 28 at 10.45pm in Major League Soccer

FC Cincinnati

All competitions
Last Game: Cincinnati 1-0 NY City
Monday, October 28 at 10.45pm in Major League Soccer

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 50.18%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 27.85% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.77%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.

Result
New York City FCDrawFC Cincinnati
50.18% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)21.98% (0.11 0.11)27.85% (-0.1 -0.1)
Both teams to score 64.83% (-0.496 -0.5)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.25% (-0.613 -0.61)34.75% (0.617 0.62)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.29% (-0.691 -0.69)56.71% (0.696 0.7)
New York City FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.77% (-0.21899999999999 -0.22)14.23% (0.223 0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.03% (-0.43300000000001 -0.43)41.97% (0.437 0.44)
FC Cincinnati Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.59% (-0.381 -0.38)24.41% (0.385 0.39)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.16% (-0.542 -0.54)58.84% (0.546 0.55)
Score Analysis
    New York City FC 50.18%
    FC Cincinnati 27.85%
    Draw 21.98%
New York City FCDrawFC Cincinnati
2-1 @ 9.31% (0.040999999999999 0.04)
1-0 @ 6.77% (0.158 0.16)
2-0 @ 6.6% (0.102 0.1)
3-1 @ 6.05% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.29% (0.033 0.03)
3-2 @ 4.27% (-0.064 -0.06)
4-1 @ 2.95% (-0.035 -0.04)
4-0 @ 2.09% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 2.08% (-0.049 -0.05)
5-1 @ 1.15% (-0.023 -0.02)
4-3 @ 0.98% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 50.18%
1-1 @ 9.55% (0.118 0.12)
2-2 @ 6.57% (-0.045 -0.04)
0-0 @ 3.47% (0.108 0.11)
3-3 @ 2.01% (-0.053 -0.05)
Other @ 0.39%
Total : 21.98%
1-2 @ 6.73% (0.008 0.01)
0-1 @ 4.9% (0.099 0.1)
0-2 @ 3.45% (0.032 0.03)
1-3 @ 3.16% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-3 @ 3.09% (-0.056 -0.06)
0-3 @ 1.62% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
1-4 @ 1.12% (-0.024 -0.02)
2-4 @ 1.09% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 27.85%

How you voted: NY City vs Cincinnati

New York City FC
72.2%
Draw
16.7%
FC Cincinnati
11.1%
18
Head to Head
Oct 28, 2024 10.45pm
Cincinnati
1-0
NY City
Rodrigo Asad (51')
Orellano (29'), Rodrigo Asad (89')

Sands (41'), Moralez (82')
Gray (90+9')
> Preview
Oct 3, 2024 12.30am
NY City
3-2
Cincinnati
Ilencic (16'), Martinez (65'), Rodriguez (75' pen.)
Sands (41'), Martins (66'), Perea (84'), Gray (90+1'), Wolf (90+14')
Acosta (69' pen.), Baird (90+6')
Kelsy (34')
> Preview
Aug 6, 2024 1am
Group Stage
Cincinnati
4-2
NY City
Bucha (79'), Rodrigo Asad (82'), Kubo (86'), Santos (89')
Nwobodo (78')
Rodriguez (25'), Mijatovic (61')
Fernandez (33'), Wolf (90+3')
> Preview
Mar 23, 2024 11.30pm
Cincinnati
1-0
NY City
Acosta (57')
Acosta (20')

Perea (45+5')
> Preview
Aug 27, 2023 12.30am
Cincinnati
3-0
NY City
Boupendza (6'), Moreno (52'), Hagglund (59')
Miazga (45'), Kubo (50')

Risa (88'), Perea (90+2')
> Preview