Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 28

Apr 6, 2024 at 2.30pm UK

Mewa Arena

Mainz
4 - 0
Darmstadt

Hanche-Olsen (32'), Gruda (60'), Jae-sung (80', 84')
Kohr (51'), Gruda (74'), Gruda (75')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Lieberknecht (35'), Isherwood (39'), Skarke (52'), Brunst (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and SV Darmstadt 98, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

Last Game: RB Leipzig 0-0 Mainz
Saturday, March 30 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

SV Darmstadt 98

All competitions

Last Game: VfL Bochum 2-2 Darmstadt
Sunday, March 31 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Mainz 05 2-1 SV Darmstadt 98

Just like the reverse fixture, a closely-contested encounter could be in store this weekend between two teams desperate to claim all three points, aware that a draw will not benefit them too much in their quest to avoid the drop. Taking into account the hosts' slight upturn in form under Henriksen as well as the miserable winless run of the visitors, we can see Mainz coming out on top to put Darmstadt on the brink of relegation. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 58.66%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for SV Darmstadt 98 had a probability of 18.98%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.35%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.62%), while for a SV Darmstadt 98 win it was 0-1 (5.7%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	SV Darmstadt 98
58.66% ( 0.07)	22.37% ( 0)	18.98% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 52.02% (

-0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.53% (

-0.12)

46.47% (

0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.25% (

-0.12)

68.75% (

0.12)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.49% (

-0.02)

15.51% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.58% (

-0.04)

44.41% (

0.04)

SV Darmstadt 98 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.57% (

-0.15)

38.43% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.82% (

-0.15)

75.18% (

0.15)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 58.65%

SV Darmstadt 98 18.98%

Draw 22.36%

Mainz 05	Draw	SV Darmstadt 98
1-0 @ 11.1% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 10.35% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.43% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 6.15% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.87% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.12% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 2.36% Total : 58.65%	1-1 @ 10.62% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.96% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.73% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.36%	0-1 @ 5.7% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.34% Total : 18.98%