Brasileiro | Gameweek 12

Jun 25, 2023 at 8pm UK

Arena do Gremio

Gremio
5 - 1
Coritiba

Cristaldo (34' pen.), Villasanti (48'), Bitello (54'), Suarez (66'), Henrique (84')
Carballo (21'), Reinaldo (70')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Manga (41')
Natanael (33'), Andrey (36'), Manga (42'), Kuscevic (73')
Gomes (90+3')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Brasileiro clash between Gremio and Coritiba, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gremio

All competitions

Brasileiro

Last Game: Gremio 3-1 America Mineiro
Thursday, June 22 at 11pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Top scorers

Coritiba

All competitions

Last Game: Coritiba 0-1 Internacional
Friday, June 23 at 12am in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Despite there being 16 points and 17 positions between these two sides ahead of Sunday's meeting, we expect Coritiba to push the hosts hard to earn their victory. However, Gaucho's side are on a serious roll at present, and it would be surprising if they did not get the job done in the end to maintain pressure on the top two sides. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 67.99%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 12.12%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.25%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.38%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.

Result
Gremio	Draw	Coritiba
67.99% ( -0.01)	19.89% ( -0.01)	12.12% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 43.94% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.11% (

0.05)

48.88% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.02% (

0.05)

70.98% (

-0.05)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.62% (

0.01)

13.37% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.72% (

0.03)

40.28% (

-0.03)

Coritiba Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.72% (

0.05)

49.27% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.85% (

0.04)

84.15% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Gremio 67.98%

Coritiba 12.12%

Draw 19.89%

Gremio	Draw	Coritiba
2-0 @ 13.33% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 13.25% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.44% ( 0) 3-0 @ 8.94% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.33% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 4.5% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.18% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.81% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.28% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.13% ( 0) Other @ 2.54% Total : 67.98%	1-1 @ 9.38% 0-0 @ 6.59% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.34% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.58% Total : 19.89%	0-1 @ 4.66% ( -0) 1-2 @ 3.32% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.65% ( 0) Other @ 2.48% Total : 12.12%