Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 49.44%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 25.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (8.72%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.