Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 75.25%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 9.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.42%) and 3-0 (10.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.47%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (3.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.