Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 61.92%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 16.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.