Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 61.92%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 16.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.

Result
Gremio	Draw	America Mineiro
61.92% ( 11.25)	22.01% ( -5.56)	16.08% ( -5.69)

Both teams to score 47.54% (

6.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.45% (

12.87)

49.55% (

-12.87)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.43% (

10.47)

71.57% (

-10.47)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.52% (

9.46)

15.48% (

-9.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.64% (

15.22)

44.36% (

-15.22)

America Mineiro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.25% (

0.92)

43.75% (

-0.92)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.09% (

0.75)

79.91% (

-0.75)

Score Analysis

Gremio 61.91%

America Mineiro 16.08%

Draw 22%

Gremio	Draw	America Mineiro
1-0 @ 12.63% ( -2.84) 2-0 @ 11.78% ( 1.04) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( 1.09) 3-0 @ 7.33% ( 2.36) 3-1 @ 6.06% ( 2.05) 4-0 @ 3.42% ( 1.69) 4-1 @ 2.83% ( 1.44) 3-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.89) 5-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.8) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0.61) 5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.67) Other @ 2.12% Total : 61.91%	1-1 @ 10.44% ( -2.02) 0-0 @ 6.77% ( -4.36) 2-2 @ 4.03% ( 0.54) Other @ 0.76% Total : 22%	0-1 @ 5.6% ( -3.38) 1-2 @ 4.32% ( -0.71) 0-2 @ 2.31% ( -1.3) 1-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.17) Other @ 1.55% Total : 16.08%