Women's Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Mar 18, 2025 at 5.45pm UK
Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 3

Real Madrid
2 - 0
Arsenal

Caicedo (22'), del Castillo (82')
Rodriguez (90+4'), Carmona (90+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Kelly (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Women's Champions League clash between Real Madrid Femenino and Arsenal Women, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

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Last Game: Real Madrid 1-2 Chelsea
Tuesday, December 17 at 5.45pm in Women's Champions League
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Women win with a probability of 46.09%. A win for Real Madrid Femenino had a probability of 31.51% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Women win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.38%) and 0-2 (5.94%). The likeliest Real Madrid Femenino win was 2-1 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.

Result
Real Madrid FemeninoDrawArsenal Women
31.51% (-0.128 -0.13)22.4% (0.016999999999999 0.02)46.09% (0.109 0.11)
Both teams to score 65.83% (-0.14099999999999 -0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.51% (-0.15599999999999 -0.16)34.48% (0.153 0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.59% (-0.174 -0.17)56.41% (0.172 0.17)
Real Madrid Femenino Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.93% (-0.149 -0.15)22.06% (0.147 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.59% (-0.225 -0.23)55.41% (0.223 0.22)
Arsenal Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.47% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)15.53% (0.019 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.55% (-0.037999999999997 -0.04)44.45% (0.036000000000001 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Real Madrid Femenino 31.51%
    Arsenal Women 46.09%
    Draw 22.4%
Real Madrid FemeninoDrawArsenal Women
2-1 @ 7.29% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-0 @ 5.18% (0.018 0.02)
2-0 @ 3.91% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 3.67% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.42% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-0 @ 1.97% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.39% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.29% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 3.39%
Total : 31.51%
1-1 @ 9.64% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
2-2 @ 6.79% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 3.43% (0.027 0.03)
3-3 @ 2.12% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 0.42%
Total : 22.4%
1-2 @ 8.98% (0.019 0.02)
0-1 @ 6.38% (0.046 0.05)
0-2 @ 5.94% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
1-3 @ 5.58% (0.008 0.01)
2-3 @ 4.21% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.69% (0.022 0.02)
1-4 @ 2.6% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-4 @ 1.96% (-0.006 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.72% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
3-4 @ 0.99% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-5 @ 0.97%
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 46.09%

How you voted: Real Madrid vs Arsenal

Real Madrid Femenino
31.3%
Draw
7.5%
Arsenal Women
61.2%
67
rhs 2.0


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