Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Women win with a probability of 41.27%. A win for Arsenal Women had a probability of 35.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.83%) and 2-0 (5.69%). The likeliest Arsenal Women win was 1-2 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.