Arouca
Benfica
Braga
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estrela Amadora
Famalicao logo
Gil Vicente logo
Moreirense
Nacional
Porto
Rio Ave
Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon
Tondela
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Nacional
Primeira Liga
Dec 15, 2025 at 3.30pm UK
 
Tondela

Nacional
3-1
TondelaTondela

FT

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Nacional and Tondela, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Last Game: Nacional 3-1 Tondela
Monday, December 15 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Next Game: AVS vs. Nacional
Sunday, December 21 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Tondela

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Nacional 3-1 Tondela
Monday, December 15 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Next Game: Tondela vs. Casa Pia
Sunday, December 21 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 39.52%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 35.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.61%) and 0-2 (6.44%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (8.37%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.

Result
NacionalDrawTondela
35.08%25.4%39.52%
Both teams to score 56.16%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.36%47.64%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.16%69.84%
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.73%26.27%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.61%61.39%
Tondela Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.16%23.83%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.99%58.02%
Score Analysis
    Nacional 35.09%
    Tondela 39.52%
    Draw 25.4%
NacionalDrawTondela
1-0 @ 8.37%
2-1 @ 8.02%
2-0 @ 5.59%
3-1 @ 3.58%
3-2 @ 2.56%
3-0 @ 2.49%
4-1 @ 1.2%
Other @ 3.27%
Total : 35.09%
1-1 @ 12%
0-0 @ 6.26%
2-2 @ 5.75%
3-3 @ 1.23%
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.4%
0-1 @ 8.98%
1-2 @ 8.61%
0-2 @ 6.44%
1-3 @ 4.11%
0-3 @ 3.08%
2-3 @ 2.75%
1-4 @ 1.48%
0-4 @ 1.1%
2-4 @ 0.99%
Other @ 1.99%
Total : 39.52%

Head to Head
Nov 9, 2022 3pm
Fourth Round
Nacional
1-0
Tondela
Dudu (75')
Apr 22, 2021 3pm
gameweek 28
Tondela
2-1
Nacional
Murillo (17'), Alves (60')
Augusto (74'), Strkalj (90+5')
Camacho (13')
Ibrahim Alhassan (38'), Micael (73'), Camacho (90+2'), Filipe (90+5')
Borges (85')
> Preview
Dec 27, 2020 3pm
gameweek 11
Nacional
2-0
Tondela
Micael (1'), Riascos (68')
Borges (27')

Bebeto (18'), Agra (30'), Martinez (81'), Khacef (83')
Bebeto (27'), Khacef (90+6')
> Preview
Mar 2, 2019 3.30pm
gameweek 24
Nacional
3-2
Tondela
Riascos (36'), Tissone (62'), Goncalves (83')
Guimaraes (21'), Kalindi (89')
Tomane (22' pen.), Moufi (66')
Monteiro (35'), Jaquite (61'), Pedro (79'), Pite (90')
Oct 5, 2018 3.30pm
gameweek 7
Tondela
1-1
Nacional
Bruno (62')
Tavares (89')
Kalindi (65')
Tissone (56'), Jota (90')