Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 71.33%. A draw had a probability of 18.72% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 9.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (14.02%) and 0-3 (10.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.71%) , while for a Tondela win it was 1-0 (4.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 14.5% likelihood.