Arouca
Benfica
Braga
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estrela Amadora
Famalicao logo
Gil Vicente logo
Moreirense
Nacional
Porto
Rio Ave
Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon
Tondela
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Tondela
Primeira Liga
Dec 21, 2025 at 6pm UK
 
Casa Pia

TondelaTondela
1-2
Casa Pia

Cavaleiro (58' pen.)
FT(HT: 0-0)
Larrazabal (62'), Nhaga (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Tondela and Casa Pia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Tondela

All competitions
Last Game: Tondela 1-2 Casa Pia
Sunday, December 21 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Casa Pia

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Tondela 1-2 Casa Pia
Sunday, December 21 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Next Game: Casa Pia vs. Guimaraes
Sunday, December 28 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 36.95%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.88%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (10.97%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.

Result
TondelaDrawCasa Pia
35.11% (0.18 0.18)27.94% (0.013999999999999 0.01)36.95% (-0.195 -0.2)
Both teams to score 47.95% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.94% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)58.06% (0.044999999999995 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.27% (-0.035 -0.04)78.74% (0.034000000000006 0.03)
Tondela Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.67% (0.091999999999999 0.09)31.33% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.31% (0.107 0.11)67.7% (-0.107 -0.11)
Casa Pia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.82% (-0.14100000000001 -0.14)30.18% (0.142 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.67% (-0.17 -0.17)66.33% (0.17 0.17)
Score Analysis
    Tondela 35.11%
    Casa Pia 36.94%
    Draw 27.94%
TondelaDrawCasa Pia
1-0 @ 10.97% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 7.63% (0.022 0.02)
2-0 @ 6.37% (0.043 0.04)
3-1 @ 2.95% (0.017 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.46% (0.023 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.77% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 35.11%
1-1 @ 13.14%
0-0 @ 9.46% (0.016 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.57% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.77%
Total : 27.94%
0-1 @ 11.32% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
1-2 @ 7.88% (-0.028 -0.03)
0-2 @ 6.79% (-0.042000000000001 -0.04)
1-3 @ 3.15% (-0.023 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.71% (-0.027 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.83% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
1-4 @ 0.94% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 36.94%