Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 47.44%. A draw had a probability of 27.46% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.53%) and 1-2 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%) , while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.